Data released on 27 November 2019 by the government indicates that India’s economy grew at its slowest pace in six years, in the second quarter of this fiscal year ending 30 September 2019. The official figures indicate that gross domestic product (GDP) rose just 4.5% in the second quarter (Q2-FY2019-20), and gross value added (GVA) growth was just 4.3% compared to 4.9% in the previous quarter.
The growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), the key indicator for investment, fell to a 19-quarter low in the July-September quarter (Q2) of financial year 2019-20. Although the GFCF grew by 1% in Q2FY20, compared to a 4.04% growth in the previous quarter, it still fell in comparison to the last 19 quarters. The share of GFCF in the overall GDP shrank to 27.8% during the quarter, against 29.7% in the previous quarter – the lowest since Q4FY17.
Private consumption expenditure data
Contrary to the evidence of worsening consumption demand across major economic sectors, the government claims that private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) grew by 5.1% in Q2 of FY 2019-20. This figure is somewhat at odds with the evidence from several sectors that have shown deceleration of demand, including automobile, electricity, sugar, real estate, and biscuits, amongst others.
IppStar surveys show print industry correlation with economic data
Our sister organization, IppStar (www.ippstar.org), has done two broad studies in recent months. The first is a stratified sample survey of offset and digital printers across India, including all sizes and geographies. The second is a purposive sample of those printers who have purchased new offset multicolor presses in the past three years – that is, printers who are generally growing and perhaps larger in turnover and with a higher proportion being in packaging and labels.
In both surveys, 76% of those interviewed say that GDP growth, either directly or indirectly, influences their growth. The stratified sample indicates a slightly higher number of printers who say that there is a direct correlation. The surveys, nevertheless, suggest that both segments remain optimistic and plan to invest in capital equipment in the next three years.
Packaging South Asia — resilient, growing and impactful — daily, monthly — always responsive
The multi-channel B2B in print and digital 17-year-old platform matches the industry’s growth trajectory. The Indian, South Asian, Southeast Asian, and Middle East packaging industries are looking beyond the resilience of the past three years. They are resuming capacity expansion and diversification, with high technology and automation in new plants and projects.
As we present our 2024 publishing plan, India’s real GDP growth for the financial year ending 31 March 2024 will exceed 6%. The packaging industry growth will match the GDP growth in volume terms and surpass it by at least 3% in terms of nominal growth allowing for price inflation in energy, raw materials, consumables, and capital equipment.
The capacity for flexible film manufacturing in India increased by 45% over the past four years. With orders in place, we expect another 20% capacity addition in 2024 and 2025. Capacities in monocartons, corrugation, aseptic liquid packaging, and labels are grown similarly. As the consumption story returns over the next six months, we expect demand to return and exceed the growth trajectory of previous years. The numbers are positive for most of the economies in the region – and as shown by our analytics, our platform increasingly reaches and influences these.
For responsible and sustainable packaging, with its attendant regulations and compliances, there is significant headroom to grow in India and the region. Our coverage includes the entire packaging supply chain – from concept to shelf and to waste collection, sorting, and recycling.
We target brand owners, product managers, raw material suppliers, packaging designers and converters, and recyclers. This is a large and complex canvas – the only thing that can work is your agile thinking and innovation together with our continuous learning and persistence.
The coming year looks to be an up year in this region, and this is the right time to plan your participation and marketing communication – in our rich and highly targeted business platform with human resources on the ground. Share your thoughts and plans and to inspire and mobilize our editorial and advertising teams!
